We will begin as manager and look at a two-by-two matrix. In the upper left-hand corner, we have certain occurrences with defined meanings, which we can call ‘the known’. On the diagonal, moving down, we have things that either occur with probability or when they occur, we don’t really necessarily know their meaning, because the meanings are assigned with probability. In the lower right-hand corner we have the things that are every manager’s nightmare, or they’re golden opportunities, which are the Miracles and Nasty Surprises. These are things that occur with undefined meaning and uncertain occurrence.
Consider a classical but oft told myth. There is no way that when Pierre Omidyar decided that he needed to get rid of his wife’s Pez dispensers and put up a website to get rid of them, that he had any idea that eBay would emerge. That was a miracle. All the people whotried to follow him on the Internet and create something similar thought they were operating in one of the other three squares. The fact that eBay wasn’t replicable — well, that was a nasty surprise.
